© Global Look Press / Juma Mohammad
Source:
RT News
By:
Mikhail Khodarenok
How
does the Idlib crisis stand hours ahead of Putin-Erdogan meeting in Moscow?
This
is what the situation in the Idlib de-escalation zone looks like right before
the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish leader Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan, scheduled for March 5.
There
are currently five Turkish battalion task force teams operating in Idlib,
consisting of 4,700 troops, 129 artillery guns and mortars, and 15 multiple
rocket launchers (MRLs). The Turkish force’s combat capabilities are bolstered
by artillery reconnaissance, electronic warfare units, along with multiple
reconnaissance and much-feared combat drones.
Significant
losses
These
combat drones caused the most damage to the armored vehicles in Bashar Assad’s
army during the offensive – and it is drone strikes that concern the tank units
in the government forces most, as they are considered far more dangerous than
anti-tank artillery or missile systems.
Assad’s
army has suffered significant losses during the conflict – hundreds of troops
have been killed or wounded. Assad’s allies have also been affected, including
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who lost 43 soldiers in an attack on
an observation post. There have been losses in Hezbollah’s units as well, even
though they haven’t engaged in any frontline combat.
For
example, in a matter of days, 191 soldiers from the Syrian armed forces were
killed, and another 292 wounded. The army also lost tanks, IFVs and artillery
guns and mortars, though experts say most of the damaged hardware can be
repaired and used again.
Turkish
military aircraft have violated Syrian airspace over Idlib three times in
recent days. The Turkish fighters have engaged in air-to-air combat and have
downed two Syrian bombers, two helicopters and, most recently, shot down a
Czech-made jet trainer.
Jihadi
numbers dropping
Jihadist
forces have also suffered major losses. In the last three months, their
contingent has shrunk by more than half to around 12-13,000 fighters. Not all
of the losses were the result of deaths and injuries; most militants simply ran
off. The crucial point is that there are no reinforcements and the numbers keep
falling. The terrorists have also lost some of their most experienced fighters
and well-trained units.
The
situation along the line of contact has reached a precarious balance. If
Assad’s troops proceeded with their offensive, Turkish artillery and
multiple-rocket launchers (MRLs) would immediately start firing back and would
support counter-offensives by jihadi militants. Turkey has already started
supplying jihadist formations with fairly modern weapons and equipment;
including US-made armored personnel carriers, anti-tank missile systems and
man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS)
It
is still unclear who has the necessary qualifications to operate the MANPADS
within the jihadist combat units. Either the Turks have managed to provide
adequate training to the militants, turning them into top-level MANPAD
operators, or perhaps they are operating the systems themselves, disguised as
jihadists.
Turkish
side
As
for the Syrian Army, it has managed to destroy 12 unmanned Anka aerial vehicles
(UAVs) and seven Bayraktar UAVs in combat operations.
In
the first stage of the offensive, the Syrian Armed Forces didn’t have any
effective weapons to take out the Turkish UAVs. Almost all Syrian air and
missile defense troops equipped with anti-aircraft missile systems were
concentrated around Damascus. When the Pantsir and Buk artillery systems were
moved to the combat zone, the situation changed.
The
Turkish UAVs were now used during night only, and tried to stay out of reach of
the Syrian anti-aircraft missile systems. Today, Turkish UAVs are mostly
countered by Pantsir-S and Buk-M2E anti-aircraft systems. The Buk has proven to
be a highly effective weapon, having the highest number of downed Turkish UAVs
on its track record.
The
militants continue to attack Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base, but zero deaths and
little to no destruction at the base means that the air defense system there is
clearly working well. Militants have retreated to 55km away from the base and
multiple-rocket launcher attacks have almost completely stopped. Should the
Turks provide the jihadis with their MRL systems, that situation could change
again.
Refugee
exodus
There
are currently about 200,000 temporarily displaced persons on the Syria-Turkey
border, with 85,000 living in refugee camps: Hazano, Sarmada, Sheikh Hassan,
Baskaria, Darkush, and Salkin.
Meanwhile,
Turkey’s ‘Operation Olive Branch’ in Afrin in 2018 forced up to 250,000 people
(mostly Kurds) to flee the area, while the 2019 ‘Operation Peace Spring’
incursion into north eastern Syria displaced 135,000 people (also mostly
Kurds).
Turkey’s
policy of resettling Syrian Turkmen in formerly Kurdish territories has already
led to a radical change in the ethnic composition in these areas.
Assad’s
pause
To
proceed with its offensive, the Syria army would have to pause for two or three
weeks in order to restore its combat capabilities, replenishing its ranks,
weapons and military hardware.
Syrian
forces need to stock up on material, particularly munitions, that have been
used up. For that reason, they would no longer be able to liberate the
territories that run along the M4 highway by March 5.
Which
is why it will most likely be the presidents of Russia and Turkey who will draw
the final line of separation in Idlib at their meeting in Moscow.
Syria News 2020
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Syria News 2020
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