Thursday, April 7, 2016

Saudi Arabia’s Terminal Decline

By: Stewart Brennan

It’s been said many times that Saudi Arabia has 25% of the Worlds known oil reserves and that's a huge amount, because global economics depends heavily on oil energy to foster growth…but what happens when after 60 years of extraction the oil in Saudi Arabia goes into terminal decline? The answer is economic collapse


The above headline should have raised the attention and anxiety levels of many people around the world...but this very significant statement seems to have passed by without much notice...but it should be a huge wake up call.

“OIL” is the sole natural resource that Saudi Arabia possesses, so their plan to sell off all their oil assets tells me that they have now passed a critical point in their oil production and have entered a serious phase of “Terminal Decline”…You can be sure that the oil left in the ground is not worth 2 Trillion dollars so I would caution and say “Buyer Beware!” but also caution that if Saudi Arabia has indeed gone past their peak, then the world is in for a very bumpy ride as indeed the Saudi’s have already dragged us through their insane extremist mindset in Syria, Yemen, Libya, and many other places across Asia, Africa and the Middle East to hide this fact…

The panic within the house of Saud is there for all to see and became evident in a 2013 open letter by Prince Alwaleed, the nephew of deceased king, Abdullah, where he revealed that “92% of the Saudi government budget relies on oil revenues”. He also expressed that "Revenue diversification is a must, and that it necessitates a clear vision that should be implemented immediately," He also called on Saudi authorities to prepare plans to generate nuclear energy and renewable energy to "reduce local consumption of oil as soon as possible". These startling concerns point to the Saudi’s being in an advanced state of “Terminal Decline” and that the action required by the Saudi regime was extremely urgent.

For a country that claims to be swimming in oil, the alarm here is quite clear, that there just isn’t going to be enough oil for the country to sustain its future needs. The timing of the announcement is also interesting as their total financial support of the ISIL terrorist army had not yet come into being, nor had they declared war on Yemen at that point...and oil was trading well over $100.00 per barrel.

Today, the oil revenue of Saudi Arabia does not even cover the Saudi government budget so we must look at all the reasons for why that is.

Saudi Arabia ramps up austerity to avoid budget deficit

Video Source: Press TV

Low Market Price for Oil

Much has been said about Saudi Arabia keeping their oil output high to drive global prices lower to keep shale oil competition out of the market…that would be true if the Saudi’s were in a strong financial position to launch such an economic war…but they clearly were not in good financial shape and they knew it…And since the Saudi’s needed money it would have been better for them to reduce their production and drive the market prices higher rather than keeping the price low through a higher production…It makes no logical sense that they would lower the price of oil when they knew it would cause them economic disaster…this is one area that panic could have influenced their actions…but they knew that losing this economic gamble would drive them to financial ruin…now they are in a position that they need to sell off all their oil assets…and they are indeed in a panic.

Also of special note, within Prince Alwaleed’s open letter is that he calls for the acquisition of nuclear energy as an alternative to oil…this statement should give everyone pause considering the sociopathic and sadistic actions this regime has employed against the people of the region through their outright sponsoring of terrorism and twisted belief in supremest ideology.

Another big give away that I believe furthers the argument of Saudi Arabia’s Terminal oil Decline was that in November 2013, the Saudi’s announced that they were going to deport hundreds of thousands of foreign workers who mostly worked in the oil industry, and its supporting community. They cited that it was to create jobs for their own people and yet the deportations were brutal and massive in scope. As most managerial people know, training unskilled workers to do the jobs that skilled and experienced workers held before them is a very costly and time consuming process…especially when a large segment of the skilled foreign worker pool is replaced…results don't happen overnight so things just don’t add up unless the thought of peak oil comes into the picture…

Saudi Arabia to deport thousands of Egyptian workers - (2013)

Source: Press TV

When a nation deports people on a massive scale such as this, they are preparing for an economic calamity and or an immanent war. This was a very drastic and paranoid move by the Saudi government in 2013…and as we look back, the war on Yemen and their own economic collapse had not happened yet. 

Corruption in the House

Going back to an article from 2003 titled “The Fall of theHouse of Saud” written by ex CIA officer “Robert Baer” in “The Atlantic”, the number of family members in the house of Saud, was between 10,000 to 12,000 and rising. He reports that they were emptying the royal treasury by their increasing demand for royal stipends while also boldly engaging in criminal activity.

Fraud certainly took its toll on the Saudi government budget, but I have no doubt, that some of those criminal schemes were put to an end by King Abdullah while he was building and funding his terrorist army and training schools in other nations.

Indeed, the Saudi’s support and funding of fanaticism, terrorism, and war throughout the Middle East, Africa, and Eurasia has taken a severe toll on Saudi money reserves, so much so that they have actually had toborrow billions of dollars to meet this years budget.

The Saudi’s were the largest exporter of oil to the world, with 25% of known global oil reserves. They made a lot of money over the past 45 years and it looks increasingly clear that many of the Saud family members have squandered their entire fortune on maintaining a lavish criminal lifestyle while also shouldering the cost of their violent ideology while warring on neighbouring countries…all while the general population of Saudi Arabia lives in a state of brutal abject poverty…

Documentary - Saudi Arabia Uncovered

Saudi Arabia is now trying to ward off national bankruptcy by implementing austerity measures. According to the IMF, the Saudi’s would need the selling price of oil to be around $106.00 per barrel just to avoid a budget deficit. But in 2013 according to the IMF, Saudi Arabia needed $89.00 per Barrel to balance its budget and in 2012 it needed $78.00 per barrel to balance its budget.

The Saudi argument in 2013 for their budget deficit was that the shale oil Industry in the USA was responsible for their decline in oil sales, but today the shale oil industry is in complete decay. The amount of cash required for a barrel of oil, to balance the Saudi budget, has risen exponentially year on year. Where more than 90% of the budget is dependent on the sale of oil…

Here’s the thing, once an oil pocket recedes past a certain point, water has to be pumped in to maintain the outflow…however, as the oil is extracted, more water has to be pumped in to maintain pressure and therefore more water has to be separated from the oil which in turn increases the cost of extracting it. The costs rise exponentially until the oil well is no longer productive. Once the increased cost of oil extraction passes the actual market price per barrel then it is no longer profitable…if your budget requires $106.00 per barrel and the price of oil is below that, then losses are going to occur. Today’s oil prices are hovering between $30.00 and $40.00 per barrel…. UMMMM, Houston, they have a problem…

If the Saudi’s need money, then ideally, all they have to do is cut production to drive the oil price up, but instead they will sell their oil assets? It doesn’t add up, unless they have gone into terminal decline and need to sell off their oil assets to secure some sort of future…

The global economy is contracting and therefore oil is not in as big a demand as it would be with a growing economy, and that really is the global situation today, economic contraction worldwide…but it doesn’t answer the question as to why the Saudi’s would sell off their ONLY resource and their only future, because oil powers economic growth, not just for the present, but for the future as well…there are many things the Saudi's could do to save would be to stop buying weapons from all the western countries, and cut some of those royal stipends that seem to find their way into offshore accounts...

Maybe the Saudi’s should not invest themselves in criminal wars! After all, funding global terrorism and waging war on other countries like Syria and Yemen does drain a treasury dry now doesn’t it...just ask the Americans…add to that the internal fraud, lavish lifestyles and the funded projects of its twisted Ideology all over the World…but I digress…

I believe that Saudi oil is in severe terminal decline, and since the US dollar is deeply connected with Saudi Arabia who controls OPEC, the American’s might be trying to distance themselves from the Saudi’s as we are witnessing with the list of people just thrown under the bus by the planned leak of the “Panama Papers”. 

The leaked documents include the Saudi King along with some of his associates from Qatar, Jordan, and U.A.E. How wonderfully convenient if you are trying to distance yourself from a few used up dictators and their involvement of war crimes and crimes against humanity by having a leak…adding Petro (Petrol) Poroshenko means he is no longer useful as well…

Could they be preparing for an immanent stock market crash? After all, a sharp decline of 25% in global oil production will certainly have an effect on the global stock markets. Anyone who is in debt will want to be sure that they are liquid when it happens, but don’t stash your cash in Panama…because one might find themselves shaken down in the upcoming lawsuits that will help the US recover some of their 19 Trillion dollar deficit before they go down in flames…

Then again, maybe the US is desperate to find a way back into the Middle East and offered Putin a bribe or a blackmail threat when John Kerry showed Vladimir Putin what was in his briefcase…judging by all the smirks, the Russians already knew what John Kerry was up to…

Video Source: Russia Today

If the Saudi’s are in terminal decline, and I believe they are, then the US Oligarch’s will do anything to retain their power and that means they need a way back into the Middle East but at the moment, they have no choice but to deal with Russia or continue in the same direction that the Saudi Regime is headed…bankruptcy…after all, oil is what powers an economy and the US must import a great deal of oil to power its military and keep their economy afloat…the energy future belongs to Russia…
Dedicated to Michael C. Ruppert

No comments:

Post a Comment

Thanks for commenting on this post. Please consider sharing it on Facebook or Twitter for a wider discussion.

World United Music Podcast

World United Music Podcast
Click on Image for Direct Link